What’s driving Russia’s warfare? AU, Citadel professors weigh in

AUGUSTA, Ga. - Not everyone may understand why the war in Ukraine is happening, but experts from the two-state region are shedding some light on it for us.

It’s a conflict that likely won’t end soon, an Augusta University professor says.

Right now, Russia is still not using its full might, said Dr. Craig Albert, director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University.

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“In other words, they have a massive war-machine but are still only using small parts of it in this war,” he said. “There are several reasons for this: they may not want to expose their hands to great powers; they may want to bring Ukraine back to the fold, so annihilating them, vis-à-vis, Grozny, might not be the best play.”

Albert expects Russia to expand upon its war efforts.

“I think we will most likely see the rise in dirty war tactics and techniques, with more mercenaries, more artillery bombardment, and more foreign fighters ing on both sides, especially former NATO special operations forces moving into the Ukraine International Legion, and well-paid Syrians on the side of Russia,” Albert said. “With this increase in contract soldiers, we can expect more human rights atrocities and atrocities committed against soldiers as well as a relaxation of Geneva rules for armed conflict amongst combatants.”

The battle will also likely increase in the cyber world.

“I expect a steady, prolonged consistent cyber-conflict campaign waged by Russia against Ukraine and its allies, including the U.S. I don’t expect an escalation on this front at least at it applies to NATO forces,” he said. “Russia is saving its most savvy cyberweapons for a possible larger-scaled conflict against a major power.”

As it is, Russia is still poised to take Kyiv within a few months, he said, “unless Ukraine has alliance boots on the ground, which is not likely, since it will raise the specter of World War III.”

From left: Craig Albert and Jeffrey Rogg(WRDW)

Dr. Jeffrey Rogg, an assistant professor at the Citadel in the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies, offered insights on what’s motivating Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to wage the war.

“From Vladimir Putin’s view, he believes that the greatest tragedy to befall modern Russia was the collapse of the Soviet Union,” Rogg said. “Because of that, he’s been intent on not just restoring the Soviet Union or even the Russian Empire, but also the pride and the power of Russia.”

Rogg said the Soviet Union collapsed so quickly that Russia didn’t really have any influence or power at the time to affect the result.

“So from Vladimir Putin’s perspective, this issue with Ukraine has come to a head,” Rogg said.

It’s been a long time coming, as well.

Since the early 2000s when he came into power, Putin communicated to different American leaders that Ukraine was a red line for Russia.

“Now, he perceives himself as being in a position, and perhaps also, at an age and time where he has to make a stand on the future of Ukraine vis-à-vis NATO and Russia.”

What would happen if the U.S. decided to use our military to help Ukraine defend itself?

“The U.S. has to pay attention to not only what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine right now in 2022, but also what could happen in the future in other theaters as far as how we signal our commitment, and the limits of those commitments to other large states,” Rogg said.

Could this lead to a possible World War III?

“Both of the leaders know the stakes involved, but this is why you have to even consider it,” he said. “So that way you carefully think about the steps that you take and the limits, and what you’re willing to do before that could be a possible outcome.”

From reports by WRDW/WAGT and WCSC