New poll hints at who could win Ga. presidential vote

ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) - In Georgia, where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by about two-tenths of a percentage point in 2020, Trump now edges Biden by four points among Georgia ed voters in this year’s presidential re-match.

Those are the findings of a new Marist Poll. The survey of 1,283 Georgia adults was conducted March 11-14, 2024, with adults 18 years of age and older residing in Georgia were ed by phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The margin of error is 3.7%.

“Georgia has been ground zero for Trump’s legal problems dating back to the 2020 election,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so.

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“Despite all the attention focused on the state’s vote count in 2020, more than six in 10 Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”

Among those who plan to definitely vote, three points separate Trump and Biden, the poll found. Since 2020, Trump has gained ground among younger voters in the state. While Biden retains a wide lead over Trump among Black voters, Trump has made significant inroads among these voters.

The poll also found:

Trump (51%) edges Biden (47%) by four percentage points among Georgia ed voters. Among those who plan to definitely vote, three percentage points separate Trump (51%) and Biden (48%).
Independents divide, 49% for Biden to 48% for Trump.
Compared with the exit polls of the 2020 general election results, Trump has gained among younger Americans. He is now +5 percentage points over Biden among those 18 to 29. Biden carried this age group in 2020 by 13 percentage points. Among those 30 to 44, Biden is +2 percentage points against Trump. Biden carried these voters by 10 percentage points in 2020.
While Biden (75%) has a significant lead against Trump (24%) among Black voters in Georgia, Biden carried this group by 77 percentage points in 2020.
In a three-candidate field, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump (45%) has a five-percentage point edge against Biden (40%). Kennedy receives 14% of the Georgia electorate. Kennedy has yet to qualify to be on the ballot in Georgia.

Last week, both Trump and Biden won Georgia’s Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, respectively, along with their respective presidential nominations.

It will be the first presidential election rematch since 1956. In 1952, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson after then-President Harry Truman chose not to run for a second full term. Four years later, Democrats again nominated Stevenson for the presidency, which led to a second defeat at then-President Eisenhower’s hands.

No GOP presidential contender has ever been nominated for three consecutive elections; Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, was elected president in 1885 and served only one term before being elected to a second term four years later (1885-1889 and 1893-1897). President Franklin Delano Roosevelt holds the record for the most nominations: four.